IYCRC SUMMER RESEARCH PROJECT 2026
Prepared By: Muhammad Irfan Qasmi , M. Phil Peace & Counter Terrorism Studies ( Minhaj University Lahore )
Email: yahyaahmedshah2004@gmail.com
Submission Date: 24 July 2026
The convergence of digital technologies with militant violence in Pakistan represents a profound criminological challenge that transcends traditional counterterrorism paradigms.In the period of 2022-2026, various groups including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have been able to put encrypted communications, drone technology, Artifical Intelligence driven propaganda, and crypto currency financing to use. This study re-examines these developments through established criminological frameworks, including Routine Activity Theory, Social Learning Theory, and General Strain Theory. Employing a qualitative design based on eighteen semi-structured interviews with law enforcement officials, cybercrime prosecutors, and community leaders, the research identifies how digital environments provide suitable targets, capable guardians are absent, and offenders learn and legitimize deviance online. The findings reveal critical gaps in Pakistans cybercrime investigation protocols, evidentiary standards, and prosecutorial capacity. The study proposes an Integrated Criminological Response Framework (ICRF) that adapts Situational Crime Prevention techniques to digital hybrid threats, emphasizing opportunity reduction, enhanced forensic investigation, and community-based informal social control, ultimately advocating for a criminal justice-centered rather than purely military-centric response.
Transformation over the past five years. While state security forces have effectively degraded conventional militant infrastructures, terrorist organizations have adapted by migrating significant portions of their operations into the digital domain (Weimann, 2021). The use of end-to-end encryption for operational coordination, commercially available drones for tactical surveillance, crypto currencies for financial transfers, and AI-generated deepfake content for psychological warfare has created a new typology of political violence that sits at the intersection of cybercrime and terrorism
Existing policy responses have largely been framed within the discourse of hybrid warfare, emphasizing kinetic military operations and strategic communication (Renz & Smith, 2016). However, this approach neglects the underlying criminogenic dynamics that facilitate these behaviors. Treating digital hybrid terrorism exclusively as a national security issue often sidelines critical criminological questions: Why do individuals engage in these digital deviant behaviors? What environmental and structural opportunities enable these offenses? How can the criminal justice systemrather than just the militaryadapt to investigate, prosecute, and deter these crimes? This study addresses these gaps by applying criminological theories to analyze the evolution and operationalization of digital hybrid threats in Pakistan, evaluating the efficacy of existing legal and investigative frameworks, and proposing evidence-based interventions grounded in crime prevention principles.
Traditional counterterrorism literature has extensively documented the organizational structures and ideological motivations of militant groups (Hoffman, 2007; Neumann, 2016). However, the criminological study of terrorism and cyber-enabled extremism offers a distinct and complementary perspective. LaFree and Dugan (2007) argued that terrorist acts share significant parallels with ordinary criminal behaviors and can be analyzed using general theories of crime.
This study based on three-part criminological perspective. The first, Routine Activity Theory (Cohen & Felson, 1979), holds that crime results from the interaction of a motivated offender, a suitable victim, and the absence of a capable guardian.In the digital context, Pakistans expanding internet penetration and limited cybersecurity infrastructure provide a proliferation of suitable targets (governmental databases, financial systems, civilian social media users), while weak digital forensic capabilities signify an absence of capable guardianship.Second, according to Social Learning Theory (Akers, 1998), the ongoing process of online radicalisation takes place in the context of differential association, imitation and reinforcement in online subcultures. Extremist propaganda functions as a mechanism of normative modeling, wherein violent behaviors are justified and rewarded within closed online communities. Third, General Strain Theory (Agnew, 1992) accounts for the socio-economic and political grievances that generate anger and frustration, which militant groups channel toward digital and physical violence. This theoretical convergence allows for a comprehensive understanding of the etiology, opportunity structures, and maintenance of digital hybrid offending in Pakistan.
A qualitative case study design was employed to explore these phenomena in depth.The primary data were gathered through eighteen purposively sampled semi-structured interviews with cybercrime investigators of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), public prosecutors of the public prosecutors service in both the districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, judicial officers and community elders from militancy affected districts in both provinces.The interviews took place from February to June 2026, and explored perceptions of digital offending, investigative challenges, and community dynamics. Secondary data comprised FIA annual reports, judicial verdicts, NACTA briefings, and legislative documents. Thematic analysis, following Braun and Clarke's (2006) framework, guided data interpretation, with triangulation between interview accounts and official records enhancing validity.
Thematic analysis resulted in four interconnected findings which were all analyzed with a criminological lens.The use of encrypted messaging application (WhatsApp, Signal, Telegram) as an investigative barrier was the most powerful adversary against intelligence-led policing, all law enforcement participants said.The inability to lawfully intercept real-time communications severely hampers the collection of admissible evidence, violating the principle of "due process" in investigations. From a Routine Activity perspective, encryption effectively removes the "capable guardian" (state surveillance), thereby lowering the perceived risk of detection and increasing offending rates Drones as Force Multipliers and Weapons of Crime: Drone technology has shifted the spatial geometry of offending. Militants utilize UAVs for reconnaissance and targeted attacks, effectively bypassing traditional physical security perimeters. Criminologically, this represents a "crime facilitator" phenomenon, where technological innovation reduces the effort required to commit violence, aligning with Situational Crime Prevention principles that emphasize increasing offender effort (Clarke, 1995). Current counter-drone measures remain localized and insufficient to deter widespread misuse. AI-Generated Propaganda and Cyber Social Learning: Social Learning Theory is particularly salient in understanding AI-driven propaganda. Participants noted that algorithmically tailored extremist content leverages artificial intelligence to create personalized recruitment narratives, effectively normalizing deviance within vulnerable populations. This digital differential association operates across geographic boundaries, allowing disenfranchised individuals to adopt extremist identities without physical proximity to militant camps. The absence of robust content moderation mechanisms perpetuates this learning environment.
Terrorist financing has increasingly shifted to cryptocurrencies, exploiting the pseudonymity and regulatory gaps in Pakistans virtual asset ecosystem. This aligns with strain theory, as financial grievances motivate both fundraising and participation. However, the criminal justice response remains underdeveloped; law enforcement agencies lack blockchain forensic tools and trained personnel, making financial disruption largely ineffective.
Based on these findings, this study proposes an Integrated Criminological Response Framework that adapts Clarkes (1995) Situational Crime Prevention model to the diital hybrid context. The framework comprises five strategic pillars:
This involves developing advanced encryption-breaking forensic tools (subject to legal oversight), implementing stringent geofencing for drone operations, and enforcing mandatory KYC (Know Your Customer) protocols for cryptocurrency exchanges to raise the operational costs for offenders. Enhanced inter-agency cyber task forces, routine digital patrolling, and rapid response incident teams can elevate the perceived certainty of apprehension. This includes capacity building for the FIAs Cyber Crime Wing.
Counter-propaganda campaigns based on credible community voices can de-legitimize extremist narratives, thereby reducing the psychological rewards of recruitment. Simultaneously, swift asset forfeiture through specialized financial investigation units neutralizes monetary gains. Addressing underlying structural strains through targeted socio-economic interventions and procedural justice in policing can mitigate the grievances that extremist groups exploit for recruitment.Strengthening legal accountability mechanisms, updating the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) to include specific hybrid threat offenses, and ensuring transparent prosecution can neutralize neutralization techniques (e.g., "justifying violence as defensive"). The study recommends that Pakistan transition from a predominantly military-driven counterterrorism posture toward a balanced criminal justice-oriented model. Legislative reforms must explicitly criminalize the use of AI in propaganda generation and drone-enabled violence. Investment in digital forensics laboratories, coupled with specialized training for investigators and prosecutors, is non-negotiable for effective adjudication. Internationally, Pakistan must strengthen Mutual Legal Assistance (MLA) treaties to address the cross-border nature of digital evidence and crypto currency flows. Crucially, community-based policing and restorative justice initiatives can rebuild trust and disrupt the informal learning networks that sustain extremism.
References
Agnew, R. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30(1), 47–88.
Akers, R. L. (1998). Social learning and social structure: A general theory of crime and deviance. Northeastern University Press.
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101.
Clarke, R. V. (1995). Situational crime prevention. Crime and Justice, 19, 91–150.
Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608.
Hoffman, B. (2007). Inside terrorism (Rev. ed.). Columbia University Press.
LaFree, G., & Dugan, L. (2007). Introducing the global terrorism database. Terrorism and Political Violence, 19(2), 181–204.
Neumann, P. R. (2016). Radicalized: New jihadists and the threat to the West. I.B. Tauris.
Renz, B., & Smith, H. (2016). Russia and hybrid warfare: Going beyond the label. Aleksanteri Papers.
Weimann, G. (2021). Terrorism in cyberspace: The next generation. Columbia University Press.
In conclusion, digital hybrid terrorism in Pakistan is not just a strategic aberration, but a multifaceted criminological phenomenon that is influenced by opportunity factors, learned behaviors, and strains in the system. Viewing it through a criminological lens does not diminish the security threat; rather, it enriches the policy toolkit by emphasizing prevention, procedural fairness, and institutional capacity. The proposed Integrated Criminological Response Framework offers a pragmatic pathway toward a more resilient and accountable national response, ensuring that countering hybrid threats does not come at the expense of civil liberties and the rule of law.
